Trading - under 2.5
I had some spare time today, Bayern – Getafe on TV, a good opportunity to earn playing. Courses on under and over were similar, about 2.0 each. I didn't reach to statistics, I knew however that despite of meeting two goal-scoring teams Bayern has problems with finishing. I decided to play under, depending on the course of the game, counter in 20-30th minute. I played for 15 € having the same to win (14.30€ with deducted commission)
I didn't like the match from the beginning. Continuous attacks of Bavarians may have ended with a goal at every moment but the lack of Luca Toni was decisive and nobody was able to defeat Russian goalkeeper. Facing that kind of outcome of the game I decided to counter in the 20th minute, when the odd falls down do 1.6. Unfortunately in the 16th minute Bayern received a penalty kick. The market was hung and for me was left only hope that Ribery will make a mistake. Unfortunately he didn't. Courses skyrocketed instantly reaching even for under. Because Bayern was still attacking I decided to withdraw from the market, even for the price of minimum losses. I played then on Lay market with 2.5 odd on under for 5 €, then with the odd 2.28 for 4 €. The situation was as follows.
I would have earned 2.38 in case of under, if there was over I would have lost 6 €. I decided to wait through a half-time break and as the odd still falls counter for the last time. I did this in 55th minute, the game became open, I did not want to wait any longer. If under stays nothing I will lose nothing if there is over I will lose only 3 €.
Zenith leveled thanks to an own goal by Lucio in 60th minute. If I hadn’t countered earlier it would be not profitable now. The game ended with 1-1 result in spite of good goal-scoring opportunities from the both sides. We can draw the following conclusions from this game: - Rather don’t play matches, which you are unsure of, analyse games. If we however play such game which we do not have the certainty simply quickly counter. Smaller earnings and smaller risk. - Sometimes it is better to drop the game which doesn’t go the way we want without profit than lose invested money. Don’t push too much. You can’t make a profit on every match. - When the goal is scored you should wait with countering. We can see that the odds shoot up after a goal, then it begins to fall.
- We see sharp falls on the graph and almost flat sections. The most profitable moment to counter is when a sharp fall ends. Obviously we sometimes need to counter quickly and don’t take this into consideration.